As of right now there are, in my estimation, seven guys who can win the Tour. The following post will outline the case for each of them winning. Which one will actually win? Have you seen this race over the first two weeks? If so you'll know I've got no clue

1. Thomas Voeckler

   

   Scenario: After watching the first few mountain stages, it's clear that Thomas is climbing as well as he ever has and there's no real strong favorite in the race to snatch the jersey away from him. Based on that it's simply not a given that he will crack in the Alps and just hand the jersey over to one of the guys waiting in the wings. If that's the case and none of the other riders are as strong as advertised, then he's got a chance. While he's not the best time trialist in the history of the discipline, he's got a decent buffer against Evans, the only contender strong in the time trial within striking distance.

   Likelihood: I can dream, but it's still extremely unlikely. The possibility of him sneaking onto the podium has to be taken seriously, however. Especially if one of the following riders wins the race with one or two dominant efforts in the Alps and the rest of the contenders ride in a smaller group together. That itself would be a magnificent result.

2. Frank Schleck

   Scenario: Frank has looked like the strongest of the Brothers Leopard, so it's an easy route from that strength to a dominating run through the Alps. Frank has already won on the Alpe so it's natural to think of a repeat performance.

   Likelihood: To me, the strongest Schleck winning the day still seems like the likeliest result from the next week. These guys have been amongst the best climbers in the world over the past few years so seeing them translate that prowess and their strong team to the top step of the Tour podium (especially in this crazy year) is easy to visualize. I'm not entirely sold on their team tactics and their killer instinct, but… they're really good.

3. Cadel Evans

   Scenario: Everyone, so far, looks pretty evenly matched in the mountains. If that's really the case and if Voeckler cracks, then Evans has the time trialing skills to blow away the rest of the contenders.

   Likelihood: This is another strong possibility. While I'm still expecting someone to dominate the Alps, it's no certainty that someone is actually going to step up and take the race. If that's the case and they don't? Cadel wins his first grand tour in the time trial.

4. Andy Schleck

   Scenario:The exact same argument for Frank applies here. To me, Andy has never really looked like he's ready to take over the race. Maybe he's sandbagging and waiting for the Alps?

   Likelihood: I thought he was going to win when the Tour started and I still think he can win. That said, he needs a couple of minutes over Evans to win and that's going to be a tough ask. It's definitely possible, even likely, but he's going to have to be a different rider than he was in the Pyrenees.

5. Ivan Basso

   

   Scenario: Basso is built for the Alps and has timed his form perfectly for the Tour's final week. He takes significant time on the Galibier and then puts in a Sastre-like effort on the Alpe to win the Tour.

   Likelihood: To me he looks a lot like the Basso that ground Evans into paste on the Zoncolan, so I wouldn't be surprised by this result at all. I'm also hoping for it s a fan, for full disclosure's sake.

6. Samuel Sanchez

   Scenario: Sanchez has been the only rider to put significant time into the rest of the contenders in the mountains. He needs to continue that trend in the Alps and take back a ton of time over the two final mountaintop finishes…

   Likelihood: This is the least likely scenario. Much of Sanchez' success in the mountains is down to the fact that he was allowed to go away on both days. He's far enough back and isn't a dangerous climber like Contador so they let him go. I don't think that trend would continue if he looked like a danger to the rest of the contenders.

7. Alberto Contador

   Scenario: Finally recovered from his Herculean Giro effort, Contador finds the legs that have given six grand tour titles in a row and demolishes the competition in the two mountaintop finishes. He then puts in a solid time trial, finishing in the top ten overall on the day, cementing his fourth yellow jersey and winning by a full minute over the second place rider.

   Likelihood: This is highly unlikely, but still possible. Contador just hasn't looked all that great. A fit, rested contador would have crushed people On Saturday and would be fully capable of taking four or five minutes out of the field in a week like this one upcoming. The Contador we've seen so far doesn't look like that guy.

Wednesday can't come fast enough.

I'll be writing about the Tour as often as possible over the next few weeks. I apologize in advance if you're not a cycling fan, but I can't help myself.

I knew you'd understand.

Anyway, this first installment is based around the premise that I'm a fan and I have rooting interests in the race. There are riders, teams and nations that I pull for, so I've naturally got interests in who does well in certain competitions. This post will lay bare my rooting interests in the race. Anything that follows can be digested with this post in mind.

On with the show.

Ivan Basso

While I don't think he'll win this year's Tour, Basso is my overwhelming sentimental favorite in the race. After proving he's fully returned from his suspension by winning last year's Giro in dramatic fashion, Basso has fully dedicated this year to the Tour. Looking at it objectively, I'd say a third place finish in this Tour would be a real triumph for Basso. On paper he's at a disadvantage to both Andy Schleck and Alberto Contador in the mountains and lags behind the Spaniard in terms of time trialing skills, so to imagine him beating both of those guys to take the race is a long shot. That said… it's not an impossible ask. On his good days he can still climb with pretty much anyone and with Schleck still shaky in the time trial and Contador recovering from a sadistic Giro, there's a chance that Basso could come through with the biggest victory of his career.

I can guarantee there would be much rejoicing if that were the case.

Mark Cavendish

I want Mark Cavendish to win every sprint ever. That is all.

Lev Leipheimer

If Basso can't come through and make it onto the podium, I'd be most happy to see Levi Leipheimer take the third step. With his recent performance in the Tour de Susse in mind it appears that Levi has finally return to the same kind of form that saw him win major victories in the 2008 and 2009. He can't climb with either Schleck or Contador, but when he's on he can beat them both against the clock and he compares favorably against any of the other podium contendors

Thomas Voeckler

If Voeckler wins stage #1 (which passes near his home town,) taking the Tour's 1st yellow jersey I can just stop watching for the rest of the Tour. My race will be complete. He's one of the most consistently exciting riders in the peloton and a result like this would put the exclamation point on what's been a phenomenal year.

Fabian Cancellara

I've said it before, if I were to be reborn as a pro bike racer, I'd want to be just like Cancellara. He wins the coolest races with incredible style and he doesn't have to look a 60 kilo mountain goat to do it.

Tejay van Garderen

He's young, inexperienced and super talented. I don't know what to expect from Tejay in this tour, but it will be fun as hell to watch.

IS IT JULY YET?

Rather than reiterate an argument that's been raging for a couple of days,read this excellent article by Neal Rogers, which pretty much sums up how I feel about the whole thing.

Beyond the "should he or shouldn't he have attacked" argument, this whole thing has made tomorrow's Queen stage up the Tourmalet even more exciting. Sure, we've got Andy's "stomach full of anger" and Alberto's desire to erase any potential doubt should he go ahead and win the Tour, but even without those two guys there are going to be some serious fireworks on the slopes of the Pyrenean giant.

For one thing, the trackstanding shenanigans on Sunday and the "chain of events" on Monday have given the quiet Russian Denis Menchov (and to a lesser degree Samuel Sanchez) a shot at leapfrogging up to 2nd or even 1st at the end of the race. Denis can time trial as well or better than Contador when he's on and he's clearly climbing well, so anything can happen at this point. He probably won't win, or even finish second, but he's got a chance to move up and that will seriously animate the race. And that's ignoring his more likely battle with the aforementioned Sanchez for 3rd. Add in all the competition for the top 10-20 places and it looks like the Tour organizers have timed this race to perfection with all the drama happening in the final week.

Sylvain Chavanel

Chavanel has been a joy to watch in this year's Tour. So aggressive and so successful. Every grand tour needs someone to stir things up and Chavanel has played the role to perfection this year, saving Quick Step's Tour in the process.

THOMAS VOECKLER!

Lost in the "chaingate" hullabaloo was the magical run through the Pyrenees by the popular French champion, Thomas Voeckler. Voeckler is one of my favorite riders in the whole pro peloton. He's always testing the waters, looking for stage wins and when he does make it, as he did Monday, it's usually for a classy win, chock full of style points (See his solo win in the GP Ouest-France a couple of years ago for another example.)

Allez VOECKLER!

Alexandre Vinokourov

Speaking of exciting riders who win in dramatic, classy ways, Vino's return to the Tour has been basically perfect. Winning a stage in his inimitable attacking style and serving as a surprisingly loyal lieutenant to Contador, the disgraced Kazakh has gone a long way towards rehabilitating his image (at least with me.)

The Course

This course was actually pretty good. The weakness of the Alpine stages has more than been made up for by the Pyrenees. The one thing that I'm disappointed in is the long run-in on yesterday's stage. Eighty billion feet of climbing and the group comes in 30-40 strong? Lame. Other than that, it's been an interesting Tour throughout. The nod to Roubaix early on was especially nice. Not as dramatic as the strade bianche (or really, strade marone because of all the rain) in this year's Giro, one of the greatest single days I've ever seen in a grand tour, but still a lot of fun.

Armstrong

One Tour too many? I think so. You can blame his luck, but even without luck, I'm not sure he really had the legs to do much in this race. Yesterday's tour through the Pyrenees was fun, but it also showed how little pop he has in the mountains right now. He was really revving himself up to cross the gaps as they happened.

Still, I'll be sad to see him go.

Team Radio Shack

And this is why I hate the intense focus on the Tour that the Armstrong/Bruyneel teams have. The fear was always- if the Tour campaign is a failure (which this one clearly is,) then what do they have to show for a year? Nothing. And that's really what they have to show for 2010, nothing. Okay, okay… they won the Dauphine. Great race, but… not exactly the kind of results they're used to. It'll be interesting if they race like a regular team next year or continue to focus on France and California.

Here's hoping they expand their horizons.

The Patron

If I were a pro bike racer, I'd want to be Fabian Cancellara. That is all.

SPARTACUS!

Mark Cavendish

The Fastest Sprinter in the World.

I was choked up along with him when he broke down in tears on the podium. He's an emotional rider who makes mistakes and seeing him master his emotions and deliver in a most emphatic way on the biggest stage in cycling was an indication to me of just how great he's going to be. Winning when it's easy, is one thing. Winning when it's hard is another and as he's shown in this year's Tour he can bounce back from adversity.

Garma's a Bitch

I used to like the Garmin team. Then came their petty decision to chase down George Hincapie last year to block him from getting a Yellow Jersey and they immediately went on my shit list. Especially, since they won't even man up and admit what they did, feigning ignorance in interviews and pretending to be shocked that anyone would suspect them of chasing George down. Sorry buys, we're not idiots. HTC Columbia, eats your lunch. You can't beat them on the line, so you took the only revenge you can muster…

So… it's with a great amount of joy that I watch their Tour campaign fail so miserably. I feel bad for the individual riders, especially the guys who went down with injury, but I'm happy to see the failure of a program that ruined what would have been a special day in the career of one of America's great cycling heroes.

Maybe next year, now that the cycling karma has evened out?

Is it Thursday yet?

I'm afraid I won't have time to write a larger preview, so I want to capture at least this prediction before the race starts up this weekend. If I can work my way through the other contenders and jerseys, I'll do so, but I can make no guarantees.

So, without further ado, here are my predictions for the 2010 Tour de France podium

1. Alberto Contador

   You thought I would pick someone else? He's won most of the stage races he's entered in the past few years, including winning the last four grand tours he's entered, so until further notice el pistolero is my pick whenever he enters a race. He's a great climber and he's going to beat the next two guys handily in the time trial, so unless they crush him in the mountains, it's advantage: Contador.

   Totally unrelated to this year's Tour, I have to say I really like Contador. He's aggressive, focused on more than just the Tour and so very talented. I can hang with another five years of him doing his thing. The big question is, where will he end up at the end of his career? I know it's early, but could he pass Eddy Merckx's 11?

   If Contador wins this year's Tour, he'll have 5 grand tour wins, which will tie him for 7th on the all-time list, behind the true giants of the sport:

   • Eddy Merckx 11
   • Bernard Hinault 10
   • Jacques Anquetil 8
   • Lance Armstrong 7
   • Fausto Coppi 7
   • Miguel Indurain 7 (Indurain never won the Vuelta, go figure)

   Even if he goes the Lance route and only races the Tour every year, he's got a shot at 3rd place. He's only 27, so he's got at least 5 or 6 years of riding at the highest level ahead of him. Even if Andy Schleck or injury steals one or two of those tours, he's going to end up with 8-10. Thing is, Contador is already making noise about a Giro-Tour double next year, and he's said he likes this year's Vuelta course, so there's a possibility that Contador could have a couple of years with more than one grand tour. Which puts even The Cannibal in jeopardy (at least in terms of Grand Tours, I don't think Alberto is going to win all five monuments multiple times.)

2. Ivan Basso

   Basso has been steadily ramping up his confidence for the Tour. After the Giro, he was downplaying his chances. Recently, he's ramped up his talk from aiming for the podium, all the way to challenging Contador, saying "I want to win the Tour." To me that means he's feeling better than he expected after the Giro. If makes sense if that's the case- dead tired after the Giro he downplays his chances, but as the days tick by and his legs recover, he's starting to feel some confidence.

   This race plays to his strengths. Climb-heavy, with a focus on the 3rd week and not so many chrono KM (59 to be precise,) means that Basso's confidence might just be justified. Do I expect him to take enough time out of Contador to win the race? No. But is it possible? If the Basso that climbed the Zoncolan shows up in this race then we'll have some fireworks for sure, even if it ends up being Alberto's race.

   And heck, even if he isn't able to shake Contador, 2nd isn't so bad, especially after winning the best grand tour in more than 20 years.

3. Andy Schleck

   Confession time: I'm going out for a ride Saturday morning in the full Liquigas kit, so I am a little biased picking Basso ahead of Schleck

   Still, I'm not so much of a Basso fan that I would have picked Schleck for 3rd if I didn't have a gut feeling about their respective fitness levels. Basso was so strong in the Giro and seems like he's recovering well. Andy Schleck really hasn't looked great all year. Maybe he's peaking for the Tour, but I just don't have a good feeling about him this year.

   Of course, I'll probably be wrong and he'll win the whole thing.

   Which is exactly why I watch.

And there you have it. Psyched? I am. TOUR DE FRANCE.

As much as I pull for the guy, in reality, it would be a magnificent upset if he were able to beat Contador.

Anyway, in honor of their lopsided view of things, here's an article from the flip-side. Instead of looking at the Tour from a point of view that includes Lance as the top favorite, let's look at the race with Lance as a guy who could conceivably finish outside of the top ten. While I'm not predicting Lance will finish 12th or something (I expect him to finish in the top five, to be honest) it could happen, and if it does it could be these ten guys that do it.

1. Alberto Contador

   

   Why He'll Beat Lance

   Alberto is the best stage racer in the world. He's one of the five best time trialists and the best climber. He's actually got a strong team with him (assuming Vino doesn't go insane.) No matter what the guys on Versus might say, if Lance Armstrong beats The Accountant, it will be a major upset.

   Why Lance Will Beat Him

   He won't. Okay, he probably won't. Lance's only chance is that Contador lets his aggressiveness get the better of him in the mountains and bonks or flats/crashes on the mini-classic of Stage 3. Otherwise, Contador should take time out of Lance (and the rest of the field) whenever it matters.

2. Ivan Basso

   

   Why He'll Beat Lance

   After a year of building up race mileage, and competitive, but not stellar results, Basso is all the way back as a climber and grand tour contender. Winning this year's Giro with his climbing legs (and normal blood values) over some of the most brutal mountain passes in Europe signifies that Basso is back at the top end of the sport.

   Returning to the Tour, the site of so much of his former glory, completes his comeback, so there's additional importance for him attached to this race.

   Also, while Lance used to take big time out of Basso in the time trial, the two men have converged at a level just below the elites with Basso improving and Lance dropping down a notch or two. Based on potential form, Basso has it over Lance.

   Why Lance Will Beat Him

   Basso just won a very hard Giro and there's no telling how well he's recovered. Winning the double is difficult and there's a strong chance that Basso will be there just to stage hunt or will go for the overall and end up well down the GC (a la Denis Menchov's post-Giro 51st last year.)

3. Andy Schleck

   

   Why He'll Beat Lance

   Andy Schleck can climb mountains on a bicycle. He will eat Lance alive in the Pyrenees. Unless he's totally screwed up form-wise, he should take minutes out of him at every turn.

   Why Lance Will Beat Him

   The odds aren't good, but if Andy is sub-par in the mountains, pays too much attention to helping his brother Frank and Lance can find his Time Trial legs again, then Lance could take him out.

   I'm not holding my breath.

4. Frank Schleck

   

   Why He'll Beat Lance

   He just did, at the Tour de Suisse, so there's no reason to think he won't beat him again. A strong climber. Frank will (along with Andy) be one of the prime movers of the Tour once it hits the mountains.

   Why Lance Will Beat Him

   What's better for Saxo Bank: 2nd and 3rd or 1st and, say, 6th? Saxo really needs to go all-in behind Andy to try to win this thing. If they do the smart thing, as opposed to the brotherly thing, then Lance will benefit.

5. Denis Menchov

   

   Why He'll Beat Lance

   The quiet Russian has won three grand tours, can climb at a level just below the Schlecks and Contadors of the world, is a very strong time trialist and has focused his entire season on the Tour this year.

   Why Lance Will Beat Him

   Denis has two top five finishes at the Tour, so it's not like the race has been a disaster for him, but he's really never put it all together a the Tour. Armstrong, on the other hand, is a master of being at peak form for July. Will Menchov be able to put it all together this time?

6. Cadel Evans

   

   Why He'll Beat Lance

   The new, improved, rainbow-jersey-clad Cadel Evans is a beast. Attacking like he's channeling The Badger, Evans has been a rider reborn since winning the World Championship last year. A steady climber and excellent time trialist, Evans has everything it takes to perform well at the Tour.

   Why Lance Will Beat Him

   If Basso is a question mark because of the Giro, what about Evans? Cadel rode the same race and had a tough spring campaign as well. What's he got left?

7. Bradley Wiggins

   

   Why He'll Beat Lance

   Wiggins time trials like a demon and last year he proved that he can climb well enough to sniff at the podium.

   Why Lance Will Beat Him

   Was Wiggins' ability to hang with the big boys in the mountains last year a fluke, or is he the real deal? If it was at all flukey, then Lance should be able to take him out. Otherwise, Wiggins' time trialing will be tough to overcome.

   If it's a race for 3rd between the two then possibly the overwhelming power of Radio Shack might be able to tip the scales in Lance's favor.

8. Levi Leipheimer

   

   Why He'll Beat Lance

   He's still one of the top stage race time trialists and he can climb with everyone but the true mountain goats.

   Why Lance Will Beat Him

   Levi is a really good teammate. If he works for Lance, then clearly he won't beat him unless Lance is completely off his form (which seems unlikely.)

   Otherwise, at this point I think he's a stronger GC contender than Lance.

9. Carlos Sastre

   

   Why He'll Beat Lance

   Sastre can climb like a demon when he has form. When he's on he can take minutes out of mortal climbers.

   Why Lance Will Beat Him

   He still can't time trial, he's got a weak team and he's had some misfires in grand tours since he won the Tour.

10. Roman Kreuziger

    

    Why He'll Beat Lance

    He's an ascendant rider on a strong team. If Basso is weakened from his Giro campaign, Kreuziger will have the powerful Liquigas squad there to shepherd him through the Tour.

    Why Lance Will Beat Him

    While it wouldn't be a complete shock to see him in the top five, based on his experience level, he's probably destined for the second five. Grand tour success is a tricky thing and if there's one guy out there that knows about it, it's Lance. Kreuziger is still learning.