As of right now there are, in my estimation, seven guys who can win the Tour. The following post will outline the case for each of them winning. Which one will actually win? Have you seen this race over the first two weeks? If so you'll know I've got no clue

1. Thomas Voeckler

   

   Scenario: After watching the first few mountain stages, it's clear that Thomas is climbing as well as he ever has and there's no real strong favorite in the race to snatch the jersey away from him. Based on that it's simply not a given that he will crack in the Alps and just hand the jersey over to one of the guys waiting in the wings. If that's the case and none of the other riders are as strong as advertised, then he's got a chance. While he's not the best time trialist in the history of the discipline, he's got a decent buffer against Evans, the only contender strong in the time trial within striking distance.

   Likelihood: I can dream, but it's still extremely unlikely. The possibility of him sneaking onto the podium has to be taken seriously, however. Especially if one of the following riders wins the race with one or two dominant efforts in the Alps and the rest of the contenders ride in a smaller group together. That itself would be a magnificent result.

2. Frank Schleck

   Scenario: Frank has looked like the strongest of the Brothers Leopard, so it's an easy route from that strength to a dominating run through the Alps. Frank has already won on the Alpe so it's natural to think of a repeat performance.

   Likelihood: To me, the strongest Schleck winning the day still seems like the likeliest result from the next week. These guys have been amongst the best climbers in the world over the past few years so seeing them translate that prowess and their strong team to the top step of the Tour podium (especially in this crazy year) is easy to visualize. I'm not entirely sold on their team tactics and their killer instinct, but… they're really good.

3. Cadel Evans

   Scenario: Everyone, so far, looks pretty evenly matched in the mountains. If that's really the case and if Voeckler cracks, then Evans has the time trialing skills to blow away the rest of the contenders.

   Likelihood: This is another strong possibility. While I'm still expecting someone to dominate the Alps, it's no certainty that someone is actually going to step up and take the race. If that's the case and they don't? Cadel wins his first grand tour in the time trial.

4. Andy Schleck

   Scenario:The exact same argument for Frank applies here. To me, Andy has never really looked like he's ready to take over the race. Maybe he's sandbagging and waiting for the Alps?

   Likelihood: I thought he was going to win when the Tour started and I still think he can win. That said, he needs a couple of minutes over Evans to win and that's going to be a tough ask. It's definitely possible, even likely, but he's going to have to be a different rider than he was in the Pyrenees.

5. Ivan Basso

   

   Scenario: Basso is built for the Alps and has timed his form perfectly for the Tour's final week. He takes significant time on the Galibier and then puts in a Sastre-like effort on the Alpe to win the Tour.

   Likelihood: To me he looks a lot like the Basso that ground Evans into paste on the Zoncolan, so I wouldn't be surprised by this result at all. I'm also hoping for it s a fan, for full disclosure's sake.

6. Samuel Sanchez

   Scenario: Sanchez has been the only rider to put significant time into the rest of the contenders in the mountains. He needs to continue that trend in the Alps and take back a ton of time over the two final mountaintop finishes…

   Likelihood: This is the least likely scenario. Much of Sanchez' success in the mountains is down to the fact that he was allowed to go away on both days. He's far enough back and isn't a dangerous climber like Contador so they let him go. I don't think that trend would continue if he looked like a danger to the rest of the contenders.

7. Alberto Contador

   Scenario: Finally recovered from his Herculean Giro effort, Contador finds the legs that have given six grand tour titles in a row and demolishes the competition in the two mountaintop finishes. He then puts in a solid time trial, finishing in the top ten overall on the day, cementing his fourth yellow jersey and winning by a full minute over the second place rider.

   Likelihood: This is highly unlikely, but still possible. Contador just hasn't looked all that great. A fit, rested contador would have crushed people On Saturday and would be fully capable of taking four or five minutes out of the field in a week like this one upcoming. The Contador we've seen so far doesn't look like that guy.

Wednesday can't come fast enough.

I'll be writing about the Tour as often as possible over the next few weeks. I apologize in advance if you're not a cycling fan, but I can't help myself.

I knew you'd understand.

Anyway, this first installment is based around the premise that I'm a fan and I have rooting interests in the race. There are riders, teams and nations that I pull for, so I've naturally got interests in who does well in certain competitions. This post will lay bare my rooting interests in the race. Anything that follows can be digested with this post in mind.

On with the show.

Ivan Basso

While I don't think he'll win this year's Tour, Basso is my overwhelming sentimental favorite in the race. After proving he's fully returned from his suspension by winning last year's Giro in dramatic fashion, Basso has fully dedicated this year to the Tour. Looking at it objectively, I'd say a third place finish in this Tour would be a real triumph for Basso. On paper he's at a disadvantage to both Andy Schleck and Alberto Contador in the mountains and lags behind the Spaniard in terms of time trialing skills, so to imagine him beating both of those guys to take the race is a long shot. That said… it's not an impossible ask. On his good days he can still climb with pretty much anyone and with Schleck still shaky in the time trial and Contador recovering from a sadistic Giro, there's a chance that Basso could come through with the biggest victory of his career.

I can guarantee there would be much rejoicing if that were the case.

Mark Cavendish

I want Mark Cavendish to win every sprint ever. That is all.

Lev Leipheimer

If Basso can't come through and make it onto the podium, I'd be most happy to see Levi Leipheimer take the third step. With his recent performance in the Tour de Susse in mind it appears that Levi has finally return to the same kind of form that saw him win major victories in the 2008 and 2009. He can't climb with either Schleck or Contador, but when he's on he can beat them both against the clock and he compares favorably against any of the other podium contendors

Thomas Voeckler

If Voeckler wins stage #1 (which passes near his home town,) taking the Tour's 1st yellow jersey I can just stop watching for the rest of the Tour. My race will be complete. He's one of the most consistently exciting riders in the peloton and a result like this would put the exclamation point on what's been a phenomenal year.

Fabian Cancellara

I've said it before, if I were to be reborn as a pro bike racer, I'd want to be just like Cancellara. He wins the coolest races with incredible style and he doesn't have to look a 60 kilo mountain goat to do it.

Tejay van Garderen

He's young, inexperienced and super talented. I don't know what to expect from Tejay in this tour, but it will be fun as hell to watch.

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IS IT JULY YET?

Chaingate and Tomorrow's Tourmageddon on the Tourmalet

Rather than reiterate an argument that's been raging for a couple of days,read this excellent article by Neal Rogers, which pretty much sums up how I feel about the whole thing.

Beyond the "should he or shouldn't he have attacked" argument, this whole thing has made tomorrow's Queen stage up the Tourmalet even more exciting. Sure, we've got Andy's "stomach full of anger" and Alberto's desire to erase any potential doubt should he go ahead and win the Tour, but even without those two guys there are going to be some serious fireworks on the slopes of the Pyrenean giant.

For one thing, the trackstanding shenanigans on Sunday and the "chain of events" on Monday have given the quiet Russian Denis Menchov (and to a lesser degree Samuel Sanchez) a shot at leapfrogging up to 2nd or even 1st at the end of the race. Denis can time trial as well or better than Contador when he's on and he's clearly climbing well, so anything can happen at this point. He probably won't win, or even finish second, but he's got a chance to move up and that will seriously animate the race. And that's ignoring his more likely battle with the aforementioned Sanchez for 3rd. Add in all the competition for the top 10-20 places and it looks like the Tour organizers have timed this race to perfection with all the drama happening in the final week.

Sylvain Chavanel

Chavanel has been a joy to watch in this year's Tour. So aggressive and so successful. Every grand tour needs someone to stir things up and Chavanel has played the role to perfection this year, saving Quick Step's Tour in the process.

THOMAS VOECKLER!

Lost in the "chaingate" hullabaloo was the magical run through the Pyrenees by the popular French champion, Thomas Voeckler. Voeckler is one of my favorite riders in the whole pro peloton. He's always testing the waters, looking for stage wins and when he does make it, as he did Monday, it's usually for a classy win, chock full of style points (See his solo win in the GP Ouest-France a couple of years ago for another example.)

Allez VOECKLER!

Alexandre Vinokourov

Speaking of exciting riders who win in dramatic, classy ways, Vino's return to the Tour has been basically perfect. Winning a stage in his inimitable attacking style and serving as a surprisingly loyal lieutenant to Contador, the disgraced Kazakh has gone a long way towards rehabilitating his image (at least with me.)

The Course

This course was actually pretty good. The weakness of the Alpine stages has more than been made up for by the Pyrenees. The one thing that I'm disappointed in is the long run-in on yesterday's stage. Eighty billion feet of climbing and the group comes in 30-40 strong? Lame. Other than that, it's been an interesting Tour throughout. The nod to Roubaix early on was especially nice. Not as dramatic as the strade bianche (or really, strade marone because of all the rain) in this year's Giro, one of the greatest single days I've ever seen in a grand tour, but still a lot of fun.

Armstrong

One Tour too many? I think so. You can blame his luck, but even without luck, I'm not sure he really had the legs to do much in this race. Yesterday's tour through the Pyrenees was fun, but it also showed how little pop he has in the mountains right now. He was really revving himself up to cross the gaps as they happened.

Still, I'll be sad to see him go.

Team Radio Shack

And this is why I hate the intense focus on the Tour that the Armstrong/Bruyneel teams have. The fear was always- if the Tour campaign is a failure (which this one clearly is,) then what do they have to show for a year? Nothing. And that's really what they have to show for 2010, nothing. Okay, okay… they won the Dauphine. Great race, but… not exactly the kind of results they're used to. It'll be interesting if they race like a regular team next year or continue to focus on France and California.

Here's hoping they expand their horizons.

The Patron

If I were a pro bike racer, I'd want to be Fabian Cancellara. That is all.

SPARTACUS!

Mark Cavendish

The Fastest Sprinter in the World.

I was choked up along with him when he broke down in tears on the podium. He's an emotional rider who makes mistakes and seeing him master his emotions and deliver in a most emphatic way on the biggest stage in cycling was an indication to me of just how great he's going to be. Winning when it's easy, is one thing. Winning when it's hard is another and as he's shown in this year's Tour he can bounce back from adversity.

Garma's a Bitch

I used to like the Garmin team. Then came their petty decision to chase down George Hincapie last year to block him from getting a Yellow Jersey and they immediately went on my shit list. Especially, since they won't even man up and admit what they did, feigning ignorance in interviews and pretending to be shocked that anyone would suspect them of chasing George down. Sorry buys, we're not idiots. HTC Columbia, eats your lunch. You can't beat them on the line, so you took the only revenge you can muster…

So… it's with a great amount of joy that I watch their Tour campaign fail so miserably. I feel bad for the individual riders, especially the guys who went down with injury, but I'm happy to see the failure of a program that ruined what would have been a special day in the career of one of America's great cycling heroes.

Maybe next year, now that the cycling karma has evened out?

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Is it Thursday yet?

I'm afraid I won't have time to write a larger preview, so I want to capture at least this prediction before the race starts up this weekend. If I can work my way through the other contenders and jerseys, I'll do so, but I can make no guarantees.

So, without further ado, here are my predictions for the 2010 Tour de France podium
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As I ready myself for the best month of the year (fun, sun and whenever I'm inside- hours upon hours of the Tour de France to watch right there on my TV) I'm also getting myself mentally prepared for the awkward coverage I've come to expect from Versus. Even though the real sporting focus for the rest of the world has moved onto a certain rider from Spain, the Versus team still portrays Armstrong as the favorite.

As much as I pull for the guy, in reality, it would be a magnificent upset if he were able to beat Contador.

Anyway, in honor of their lopsided view of things, here's an article from the flip-side. Instead of looking at the Tour from a point of view that includes Lance as the top favorite, let's look at the race with Lance as a guy who could conceivably finish outside of the top ten. While I'm not predicting Lance will finish 12th or something (I expect him to finish in the top five, to be honest) it could happen, and if it does it could be these ten guys that do it.
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