Here are a couple of photos from Sunday. I did Hub on Wheels and then went back downtown to see the men's and women's races.

As of right now there are, in my estimation, seven guys who can win the Tour. The following post will outline the case for each of them winning. Which one will actually win? Have you seen this race over the first two weeks? If so you'll know I've got no clue

1. Thomas Voeckler

   

   Scenario: After watching the first few mountain stages, it's clear that Thomas is climbing as well as he ever has and there's no real strong favorite in the race to snatch the jersey away from him. Based on that it's simply not a given that he will crack in the Alps and just hand the jersey over to one of the guys waiting in the wings. If that's the case and none of the other riders are as strong as advertised, then he's got a chance. While he's not the best time trialist in the history of the discipline, he's got a decent buffer against Evans, the only contender strong in the time trial within striking distance.

   Likelihood: I can dream, but it's still extremely unlikely. The possibility of him sneaking onto the podium has to be taken seriously, however. Especially if one of the following riders wins the race with one or two dominant efforts in the Alps and the rest of the contenders ride in a smaller group together. That itself would be a magnificent result.

2. Frank Schleck

   Scenario: Frank has looked like the strongest of the Brothers Leopard, so it's an easy route from that strength to a dominating run through the Alps. Frank has already won on the Alpe so it's natural to think of a repeat performance.

   Likelihood: To me, the strongest Schleck winning the day still seems like the likeliest result from the next week. These guys have been amongst the best climbers in the world over the past few years so seeing them translate that prowess and their strong team to the top step of the Tour podium (especially in this crazy year) is easy to visualize. I'm not entirely sold on their team tactics and their killer instinct, but… they're really good.

3. Cadel Evans

   Scenario: Everyone, so far, looks pretty evenly matched in the mountains. If that's really the case and if Voeckler cracks, then Evans has the time trialing skills to blow away the rest of the contenders.

   Likelihood: This is another strong possibility. While I'm still expecting someone to dominate the Alps, it's no certainty that someone is actually going to step up and take the race. If that's the case and they don't? Cadel wins his first grand tour in the time trial.

4. Andy Schleck

   Scenario:The exact same argument for Frank applies here. To me, Andy has never really looked like he's ready to take over the race. Maybe he's sandbagging and waiting for the Alps?

   Likelihood: I thought he was going to win when the Tour started and I still think he can win. That said, he needs a couple of minutes over Evans to win and that's going to be a tough ask. It's definitely possible, even likely, but he's going to have to be a different rider than he was in the Pyrenees.

5. Ivan Basso

   

   Scenario: Basso is built for the Alps and has timed his form perfectly for the Tour's final week. He takes significant time on the Galibier and then puts in a Sastre-like effort on the Alpe to win the Tour.

   Likelihood: To me he looks a lot like the Basso that ground Evans into paste on the Zoncolan, so I wouldn't be surprised by this result at all. I'm also hoping for it s a fan, for full disclosure's sake.

6. Samuel Sanchez

   Scenario: Sanchez has been the only rider to put significant time into the rest of the contenders in the mountains. He needs to continue that trend in the Alps and take back a ton of time over the two final mountaintop finishes…

   Likelihood: This is the least likely scenario. Much of Sanchez' success in the mountains is down to the fact that he was allowed to go away on both days. He's far enough back and isn't a dangerous climber like Contador so they let him go. I don't think that trend would continue if he looked like a danger to the rest of the contenders.

7. Alberto Contador

   Scenario: Finally recovered from his Herculean Giro effort, Contador finds the legs that have given six grand tour titles in a row and demolishes the competition in the two mountaintop finishes. He then puts in a solid time trial, finishing in the top ten overall on the day, cementing his fourth yellow jersey and winning by a full minute over the second place rider.

   Likelihood: This is highly unlikely, but still possible. Contador just hasn't looked all that great. A fit, rested contador would have crushed people On Saturday and would be fully capable of taking four or five minutes out of the field in a week like this one upcoming. The Contador we've seen so far doesn't look like that guy.

Wednesday can't come fast enough.

I've mentioned the huge content backlog I've got? No? I've got a huge content backlog.

Here are some photos.

(there were originally five photos in this post. Then I added more)

From the Bike-A-Thon

(more…)

I'll be writing about the Tour as often as possible over the next few weeks. I apologize in advance if you're not a cycling fan, but I can't help myself.

I knew you'd understand.

Anyway, this first installment is based around the premise that I'm a fan and I have rooting interests in the race. There are riders, teams and nations that I pull for, so I've naturally got interests in who does well in certain competitions. This post will lay bare my rooting interests in the race. Anything that follows can be digested with this post in mind.

On with the show.

Ivan Basso

While I don't think he'll win this year's Tour, Basso is my overwhelming sentimental favorite in the race. After proving he's fully returned from his suspension by winning last year's Giro in dramatic fashion, Basso has fully dedicated this year to the Tour. Looking at it objectively, I'd say a third place finish in this Tour would be a real triumph for Basso. On paper he's at a disadvantage to both Andy Schleck and Alberto Contador in the mountains and lags behind the Spaniard in terms of time trialing skills, so to imagine him beating both of those guys to take the race is a long shot. That said… it's not an impossible ask. On his good days he can still climb with pretty much anyone and with Schleck still shaky in the time trial and Contador recovering from a sadistic Giro, there's a chance that Basso could come through with the biggest victory of his career.

I can guarantee there would be much rejoicing if that were the case.

Mark Cavendish

I want Mark Cavendish to win every sprint ever. That is all.

Lev Leipheimer

If Basso can't come through and make it onto the podium, I'd be most happy to see Levi Leipheimer take the third step. With his recent performance in the Tour de Susse in mind it appears that Levi has finally return to the same kind of form that saw him win major victories in the 2008 and 2009. He can't climb with either Schleck or Contador, but when he's on he can beat them both against the clock and he compares favorably against any of the other podium contendors

Thomas Voeckler

If Voeckler wins stage #1 (which passes near his home town,) taking the Tour's 1st yellow jersey I can just stop watching for the rest of the Tour. My race will be complete. He's one of the most consistently exciting riders in the peloton and a result like this would put the exclamation point on what's been a phenomenal year.

Fabian Cancellara

I've said it before, if I were to be reborn as a pro bike racer, I'd want to be just like Cancellara. He wins the coolest races with incredible style and he doesn't have to look a 60 kilo mountain goat to do it.

Tejay van Garderen

He's young, inexperienced and super talented. I don't know what to expect from Tejay in this tour, but it will be fun as hell to watch.

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IS IT JULY YET?

I'm riding 65 miles next week, in and around the Boston area for charity. Well, it's for fun, too.

In case you were wondering, I've decided to go with the 2007 Bouygues Telecom jersey. I'll be channeling my inner Thomas Voeckler. We'll see whether that's the swashbuckling winner we've seen on full display this season or the man grimly suffering and holding onto the yellow jersey in 2004… I'm hoping for more swash in my buckle and less grim, personally

Anyway, this is the part where I point you towards my fundraising page. I've made good progress so far, but I'd like to get further towards my goal. That's where you come in. $5-10-20 is all it takes to get me closer to my fundraising goal. That's easy, right? Thanks in advance! The pictures alone will be worth it.

Please Lend Your Support For My Ride June 12th | Bikes Not Bombs.