I'm afraid I won't have time to write a larger preview, so I want to capture at least this prediction before the race starts up this weekend. If I can work my way through the other contenders and jerseys, I'll do so, but I can make no guarantees.

So, without further ado, here are my predictions for the 2010 Tour de France podium

1. Alberto Contador

   You thought I would pick someone else? He's won most of the stage races he's entered in the past few years, including winning the last four grand tours he's entered, so until further notice el pistolero is my pick whenever he enters a race. He's a great climber and he's going to beat the next two guys handily in the time trial, so unless they crush him in the mountains, it's advantage: Contador.

   Totally unrelated to this year's Tour, I have to say I really like Contador. He's aggressive, focused on more than just the Tour and so very talented. I can hang with another five years of him doing his thing. The big question is, where will he end up at the end of his career? I know it's early, but could he pass Eddy Merckx's 11?

   If Contador wins this year's Tour, he'll have 5 grand tour wins, which will tie him for 7th on the all-time list, behind the true giants of the sport:

   • Eddy Merckx 11
   • Bernard Hinault 10
   • Jacques Anquetil 8
   • Lance Armstrong 7
   • Fausto Coppi 7
   • Miguel Indurain 7 (Indurain never won the Vuelta, go figure)

   Even if he goes the Lance route and only races the Tour every year, he's got a shot at 3rd place. He's only 27, so he's got at least 5 or 6 years of riding at the highest level ahead of him. Even if Andy Schleck or injury steals one or two of those tours, he's going to end up with 8-10. Thing is, Contador is already making noise about a Giro-Tour double next year, and he's said he likes this year's Vuelta course, so there's a possibility that Contador could have a couple of years with more than one grand tour. Which puts even The Cannibal in jeopardy (at least in terms of Grand Tours, I don't think Alberto is going to win all five monuments multiple times.)

2. Ivan Basso

   Basso has been steadily ramping up his confidence for the Tour. After the Giro, he was downplaying his chances. Recently, he's ramped up his talk from aiming for the podium, all the way to challenging Contador, saying "I want to win the Tour." To me that means he's feeling better than he expected after the Giro. If makes sense if that's the case- dead tired after the Giro he downplays his chances, but as the days tick by and his legs recover, he's starting to feel some confidence.

   This race plays to his strengths. Climb-heavy, with a focus on the 3rd week and not so many chrono KM (59 to be precise,) means that Basso's confidence might just be justified. Do I expect him to take enough time out of Contador to win the race? No. But is it possible? If the Basso that climbed the Zoncolan shows up in this race then we'll have some fireworks for sure, even if it ends up being Alberto's race.

   And heck, even if he isn't able to shake Contador, 2nd isn't so bad, especially after winning the best grand tour in more than 20 years.

3. Andy Schleck

   Confession time: I'm going out for a ride Saturday morning in the full Liquigas kit, so I am a little biased picking Basso ahead of Schleck

   Still, I'm not so much of a Basso fan that I would have picked Schleck for 3rd if I didn't have a gut feeling about their respective fitness levels. Basso was so strong in the Giro and seems like he's recovering well. Andy Schleck really hasn't looked great all year. Maybe he's peaking for the Tour, but I just don't have a good feeling about him this year.

   Of course, I'll probably be wrong and he'll win the whole thing.

   Which is exactly why I watch.

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And there you have it. Psyched? I am. TOUR DE FRANCE.