What is "Mainstream?" User Numbers on the Net, SMS and Beyond
or
Next Time You Hear "Twitter" or "FriendFeed" and "Mainstream" in a Sentence, Check Out This Post…
As of this writing, there are approximately 1.46 Billion internet users. The following are the best approximations of usage/traffic for several sites and technologies in order to provide some perspective when thinking about and discussing some of the sites and services that are currently making noise in the tech press. I hear and read a lot about the following sites and technologies and sometimes the claims make me scratch my head in confusion ("twitter has gone mainstream"), so I figured I'd do a little research to put some numbers together so I could more accurately separate out the hype.
These are pulled from different sources and have different methodologies, so there's not much scientific rigor to the following. That doesn't mean it isn't interesting an interesting list to peruse anyway
SMS
According to Comscore, GOOG has 643,809,000 users as of May 2008, which is something like 50-75% of the internet population.
Facebook attracted 123.9 million unique visitors in May 2008. That's a more-than-respectable 8% of the internet population.
RSS
Interestingly, while there are a healthy number of users, according to a three year old study a lot of them (83%!) of them didn't know it. I'm sure that number has changed in the past three years, but it's still an interesting phenomenon.
Twitdir reports 1,244,969 registered users.
That's a whopping 0.085% of the folks online. Is Twitter an occasionally fun service that I and my geeky acquaintances enjoy? Yes. Mainstream? It doesn't even sniff mainstream's vapor trail. If email is Mt. Everest, Twitter is the mound of mashed potatoes on your plate at Thanksgiving.
Did You Really Just Ask About FriendFeed?*
Yuval Atzmon reports his research shows 75,000 FriendFeed Users
That's a percentage so small Google wouldn't even return a regular number when I fed the numbers into its calculator. Instead returning 75 000 divided by 1 463 632 361 = 5.12423762 × 10-5
For perspective… "Old Media"
Newspapers
Television
I can't find any good estimates, but large sporting events like the current Beijing Olympics and the FIFA World Cup are estimated to bring in 4+ BILLION viewers, so the total number is somewhere north of that.
*FriendFeed's inclusion is based on by the post "Will FriendFeed Forever Be a Niche Service?" over at Mashable. That post crystallized the question asked above. It had been gnawing at the edges of my brain for a while, with everyone talking about twitter being "mainstream" and the like, but the idea that FriendFeed could grow to be more than a niche service seemed kind of crazy to me. Following that, I started to cast about for some perspective on the matter. This post is the result.
Scott Says:
Good insights and perspective - thanks Rob.
I judge whether something is mainstream by whether or not it's been talked about on the Today Show. Once Meredith, Matt, Al or Ann invoke something it officially becomes mainstream and "over" in the eyes of the bleeding edge early adopters.
Posted: August 12th, 2008 at 2:57 pm